Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(12:58) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to NO 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at NO 40 for 19 yards (28-D.Luter).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model