Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 90

New Orleans Saints 21 – San Francisco 49ers 26

(3:12) 32-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to NO 49, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-13-V.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.72 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model