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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 26 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 7-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to NO 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.45 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -1.70 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP