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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.84 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 57, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model