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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 61

Houston Texans 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to TB 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model