Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 72

Houston Texans 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

(4:17) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to TB 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-K.Johnson to TB 21 for 6 yards (35-J.Hansen).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.28 EP
71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model