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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 43-J.Johnson, Center-86-E.Deckers, RECOVERED by HOU-84-J.Watson at TB 36. 84-J.Watson to TB 35 for 1 yard (26-K.Merriweather).

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.47 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP