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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 35

Houston Texans 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.18 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model