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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to HOU 21, Center-86-E.Deckers. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at TB 26 for 53 yards (26-K.Merriweather).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.70 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model