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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(:10) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to ATL 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 34-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth +0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model