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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 43

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to CAR 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.42 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP