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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 17

Carolina Panthers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.50 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 17, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model