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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 56

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 27

What Actually Happened

(8:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 1-D.Mooney.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.46 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model