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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 83

Chicago Bears 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to DAL 34, Center-46-S.Daly. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 43 for 9 yards (23-R.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.95 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 83, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 41, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model