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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to CHI 10, Center-44-T.Sieg. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 29 for 19 yards (18-D.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.23 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 28, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model