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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 54

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to CHI 12, Center-44-T.Sieg. 12-D.Duvernay ran ob at CHI 24 for 12 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model