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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 4

Chicago Bears 24 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 4, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model