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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Chicago Bears 31

What Actually Happened

(7:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert to DAL 22 for 6 yards (44-N.Sewell).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.89 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 42, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model