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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 73

Chicago Bears 31 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 19-T.Taylor punts 41 yards to DAL 32, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.61 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 73, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 31, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model