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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 34

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 17-B.Aubrey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.54 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -2.17 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP