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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 2

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(1:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at DET 9 for -7 yards (46-J.Campbell). FUMBLES (46-J.Campbell), touched at DET 11, and recovers at DET 20.

The Three Options

GO +3.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 2, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model