Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 75

Detroit Lions 14 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to BAL 31, Center-49-H.Hatten. 83-L.Wester to BAL 41 for 10 yards (30-K.Dorsey). PENALTY on DET-15-G.Stuard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model