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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 23

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 33-T.Loop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model