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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 60

Detroit Lions 28 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to BAL 11, Center-49-H.Hatten. 83-L.Wester to BAL 21 for 10 yards (2-D.Thomas; 23-R.Ya-Sin).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.83 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 19, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP