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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Detroit Lions 31

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 11-J.Stout punts 38 yards to DET 30, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.58 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 26, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model