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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 51

Detroit Lions 31 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 14-A.St. Brown to BAL 31 for 20 yards (44-M.Humphrey). Penalty on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.83 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 51, worth -1.37 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model