Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 89

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 10-B.Mann punts 64 yards to LA 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-X.Smith to LA 34 for 9 yards (81-G.Calcaterra). Penalty on LA-2-J.McCollough, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at LA 34. Penalty on PHI-21-S.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.59 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 89, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model