Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Los Angeles Rams 16

(2:00) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to LA 43, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-X.Smith to PHI 48 for 9 yards (39-M.Epps).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.10 EP
59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 85, worth -4.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model