4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 28

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(:14) 16-J.Karty 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.67 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model