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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 11

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Los Angeles Rams 26

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to LA 10 for 1 yard (53-N.Landman; 37-Q.Lake).

The Three Options

GO +3.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.41 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model