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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 26 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 23-K.Williams right guard to PHI 47 for -1 yards (90-J.Davis, 98-J.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.48 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -3.36 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.76 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.50 EP
PUNT -1.25 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model