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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 4

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Los Angeles Rams 26

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 4, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model