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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 7-G.Smith left guard to LV 41 for 2 yards (54-B.Wagner).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.94 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model