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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to WAS 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model