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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 87

Washington Commanders 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to LV 31, Center-69-T.Ott. 1-T.Tucker to LV 36 for 5 yards (58-J.Magee).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.51 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 87, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 45, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model