Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(9:54) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to WAS 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-26-D.Porter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.55 EP
68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model