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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 19

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 19, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model