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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 39

Washington Commanders 34 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 10-T.Way punts 32 yards to LV 7, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-34-A.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.66 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP