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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 19

Washington Commanders 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 16-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.18 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 19, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model