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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(:27) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to WAS 32, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane to LV 43 for 25 yards (87-M.Mayer). LV-87-M.Mayer was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-6-N.Igbinoghene, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.74 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model