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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 9

New Orleans Saints 0 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 19-B.Grupe 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.74 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 9, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP