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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 45

New Orleans Saints 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:26) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep right to 41-A.Kamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.87 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.03 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.26 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model