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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 33

New Orleans Saints 3 – Seattle Seahawks 35

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.61 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 43, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP