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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 35 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.66 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP