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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 28

Seattle Seahawks 38 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.11 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model