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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 6 – Seattle Seahawks 41

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 32-K.Kroeger punts 51 yards to SEA 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-T.Horton pushed ob at SEA 35 for 8 yards (28-D.Stutsman).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.49 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 78, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model