Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 44 – New Orleans Saints 13

(13:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to NO 16, Center-41-C.Stoll. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 44 for 40 yards (81-E.Saubert).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.32 EP
60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 63, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model