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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 38

New Orleans Saints 13 – Seattle Seahawks 44

What Actually Happened

(11:14) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 1-D.Kendrick at SEA 25. 1-D.Kendrick to SEA 25 for no gain (88-J.Stoll).

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.58 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -2.04 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model