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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 44 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to NO 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.44 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP