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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 24

New York Jets 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.54 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model